Rothschild Redburn sees 50% downside in The Trade Desk
Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage on The Trade Desk with a 'Sell' rating and a price target of $11.00, citing weaker competitive positioning in the advertising supply chain. The firm anticipates market share loss or take-rate compression due to intensifying competition from walled gardens' AI tools, Amazon's programmatic buys, and agencies' direct relationships with SSPs.
Key Takeaways
- Rothschild Redburn started coverage on The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) with a Sell rating and an $11.00 price target.
- The stock was trading at $22.29, putting the analyst’s target at roughly 50% downside.
- The firm said The Trade Desk operates in just one link of the advertising supply chain.
- Competition cited in the report includes walled gardens’ AI-based media tools, Amazon’s heavily discounted programmatic buys, and agencies’ agentic buying platforms.
- InvestingPro data showed 18 analysts revised earnings down for the upcoming period.
Why It Matters
The immediate takeaway is that a new Sell call from Rothschild Redburn adds another bearish voice to an already pressured stock, with the report arguing The Trade Desk may face market-share loss or take-rate compression. The competitive pressure described is specific: AI tools inside walled gardens, Amazon programmatic buys, and more direct agency-SSP relationships. That matters because it frames TTD as exposed at a narrow point in the ad tech stack rather than across the whole chain. Next to watch: whether the 18 analyst earnings revisions downward translate into further estimate cuts after this initiation.
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